Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Data revisions from Wunderground before market resolution
AI updated 6/29/2026, 7:16:16 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
11%
ORYN Consensus
10%
Signal Score
-1.0
Opportunity
0.8
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
1,469,708
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
8
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV -100.0¢
Entry: 8-14
—
Resolution
2d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
4 points
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Incheon Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The probability of Seoul recording a low temperature of 20°C on July 1, 2026, is currently at 10%, indicating a low likelihood. Historical climate data for Seoul in early July suggests average lows around 21-22°C, making 20°C slightly below normal but not unprecedented.
A bullish scenario could unfold if an unusual weather pattern, such as a cold front or prolonged cloud cover, suppresses temperatures below the seasonal norm. Additionally, localized microclimate effects near Incheon International Airport could marginally lower the recorded temperature.
The bear case hinges on typical July weather patterns dominating, with high humidity and warm nights keeping low temperatures above 20°C. Climate trends in recent years show a warming bias, reducing the likelihood of unusually cool nights.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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