This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Key risk: data_revision_delays
AI updated 6/27/2026, 11:00:19 PM
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd Consensus
8%
ORYN Consensus
8%
Signal Score
+0.5
Opportunity
0.5
ORYN is polling its model network — Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — for this market. The consensus and per-model dissent will appear here.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
The market assigns a 7.50% probability that the lowest temperature in Paris on June 29, 2026, will be 18°C. Historical climate data and seasonal trends for late June in Paris suggest this outcome is unlikely, as typical low temperatures for this period range between 12°C and 15°C.
A bullish outcome could materialize if an unusual weather pattern, such as a heatwave or a warm air mass from southern Europe, persists through the night. Unseasonably high nighttime temperatures in recent years (e.g., 2019, 2022) demonstrate that extreme lows can exceed historical averages.
A bearish outcome is more likely given Paris' temperate maritime climate in late June. The baseline low temperature for this date is typically 12-15°C, with rare instances of 18°C. Overcast skies, wind patterns, or late-season cold fronts could further suppress temperatures below 18°C.
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Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 18°C on June 29? is tracked on ORYN with data sourced from polymarket. Current market-implied probability is 7.5% while ORYN AI estimates 8%.
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