Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: temperature_revision_risk_post_resolution
AI updated 7/2/2026, 8:30:46 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 32% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
22%
ORYN Consensus
21%
Signal Score
-1.0
Opportunity
0.8
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
2,765,887
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV -100.0¢
Entry: 19-25
—
Resolution
2d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
7 points
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market assigns a 21% probability that Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station records a low temperature of 14°C on July 4, 2026. Historical July lows in Paris range from 12°C to 16°C, with a median near 14°C, suggesting moderate plausibility.
Climate trends indicate a slight warming bias in Parisian summers, with recent July lows averaging 14-15°C. A persistent high-pressure system or urban heat island effect could push the minimum temperature to 14°C or higher, aligning with the bullish scenario.
July in Paris typically features lows between 12°C and 14°C, with cooler nights possible under clear skies or northerly winds. Unseasonable weather patterns, such as a cold front or marine influence, could suppress temperatures below 14°C, favoring the bearish outcome.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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