This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 28 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Key risk: Unpredictable extreme weather events
AI updated 6/27/2026, 8:15:27 AM
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 28 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd Consensus
0%
ORYN Consensus
1%
Signal Score
+0.8
Opportunity
0.8
ORYN is polling its model network — Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — for this market. The consensus and per-model dissent will appear here.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
The market indicates an extremely low probability (0.30%) that New York City's lowest temperature on June 28, 2026, will be 78°F or higher. Historical temperature data for late June in NYC suggests this outcome is highly unlikely due to typical seasonal patterns.
Unusually high heatwave conditions, influenced by climate change or anomalous weather patterns, could push overnight lows above 78°F. Persistent high humidity and urban heat island effects might also contribute to elevated minimum temperatures.
Standard late-June temperatures in NYC average lows in the mid-60s°F, making 78°F an outlier. No forecast models currently project such extreme overnight warmth, and historical records show only rare instances of lows exceeding 75°F in late June.
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Will the lowest temperature in New York City be 78°F or higher on June 28? is tracked on ORYN with data sourced from polymarket. Current market-implied probability is 0.2% while ORYN AI estimates 1%.
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