Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Climate data revisions post-resolution (though unlikely to alter outcome)
AI updated 7/1/2026, 1:15:28 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 50% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
1%
ORYN Consensus
1%
Signal Score
-0.2
Opportunity
0.2
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
2,208,027
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV -20.0¢
Entry: 0-4
—
Resolution
6h
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
1 points
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The probability of New York City recording a low temperature of 82°F or higher on July 1, 2026, is extremely low at 1.20%, reflecting historical temperature patterns and seasonal norms for the region. This market is highly unlikely to resolve positively given climatological trends.
Unusually high temperatures could occur due to extreme heat events, climate change-induced warming, or anomalous atmospheric conditions. If a rare heatwave persists overnight, the low temperature might remain at or above 82°F, though this is statistically improbable.
Historical data shows July lows in NYC typically range between 68-75°F, with 82°F being an extreme outlier. No recorded instance of a July 1 low meeting this threshold exists in the past century, making a resolution of 'yes' highly unlikely.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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