Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: climate data revisions prior to resolution
Calibrated 100% · raw 1350% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 7/1/2026, 2:30:38 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 50% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
10%
ORYN Consensus
23%
Signal Score
+13.5
Opportunity
11.5
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
2,208,027
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 1350.0¢
Entry: 6-12
—
Resolution
1d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
5 points
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 2 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Miami Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market indicates a 23% probability that Miami's lowest temperature on July 2, 2026, will fall within the 82-83°F range. Historical climatological data suggests this range is uncommon for early July in Miami, typically characterized by higher nighttime temperatures.
A bullish outcome could arise if an unusual weather pattern, such as a warm front or high-pressure system, traps heat in the region overnight. Elevated sea surface temperatures or urban heat island effects may also contribute to sustaining the 82-83°F range.
A bearish outcome is more likely given historical trends, as Miami’s lowest temperatures in early July rarely dip below 84°F. Cooler air masses, cloud cover, or precipitation could push temperatures below the target range, making the 82-83°F outcome improbable.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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