Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: data_revision_delay
Calibrated 100% · raw 200% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/28/2026, 5:01:36 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
7%
ORYN Consensus
9%
Signal Score
+2.0
Opportunity
1.8
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
964,743
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
8
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 200.0¢
Entry: 4-10
—
Resolution
2d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
10 points
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 30 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market assigns an 8.5% probability that Hong Kong's lowest temperature on June 30, 2026, will reach 29°C, a historically extreme threshold for the date. Historical data and seasonal patterns strongly suggest this outcome is unlikely, but the market reflects minimal confidence in such an event.
A record-breaking heatwave driven by persistent subtropical high pressure, urban heat island effects, or climate anomalies could push temperatures to 29°C. Anomalous weather patterns, such as a strong El Niño or delayed monsoon onset, may exacerbate conditions. Short-term weather models or localized heating effects could also contribute to extreme readings.
Hong Kong's historical June 30 daily minimum temperatures average around 26-27°C, with 29°C being unprecedented. Seasonal climatology and prevailing monsoon conditions make such a high temperature highly improbable. Even under climate change, rapid warming to this degree is unlikely without extraordinary circumstances.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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