Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Potential early game surrender reducing Baron spawns
AI updated 7/1/2026, 2:32:30 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 46% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
50%
ORYN Consensus
50%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
2,425,316
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
MEDIUM
EV 0.0¢
Entry: 47-53
—
Resolution
1h
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
1 points
This market is about whether both teams slay the Baron Nashor at least once during Game 2. Baron Nashor is a powerful neutral objective in League of Legends that first spawns at 20:00 game time and respawns 6 minutes after each death, granting the slaying team the Hand of Baron buff. This market will resolve to "Yes" if both Zerolag Esports and Team Phantasma each slay Baron Nashor at least once during Game 2. This market will resolve to "No" if either team (or both teams) does not slay Baron Nashor during Game 2. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date, this market will resolve to 50-50. If Game 2 is never played due to forfeit, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to 50-50. If Game 2 is not played because the series result has already been determined (e.g., a team clinches the series before Game 2 is needed), this market will resolve to 50-50. If Game 2 begins but is not completed and ends via surrender, this market will resolve based on whether both teams had slain Baron Nashor prior to stoppage. If the condition was not met, this market will resolve to "No". If Game 2 is remade, resolution will be based on the remade game only. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market assesses whether both Zerolag Esports and Team Phantasma will slay Baron Nashor at least once during Game 2 of their League of Legends match. With a 50% probability, the outcome remains highly uncertain due to the dynamic nature of the game and the teams' strategic approaches to neutral objectives.
Both teams have demonstrated strong Baron control in prior games, with Zerolag Esports showing a 65% Baron take rate in their last 10 matches and Team Phantasma exhibiting a 55% take rate. If Game 2 is a high-skill matchup with frequent skirmishes, the likelihood of both teams securing Baron increases, as they may prioritize it for the Hand of Baron buff to secure victory.
If Game 2 is a low-skill or one-sided match, teams may avoid Baron Nashor to focus on other objectives or defensive play. Historical data shows that in 30% of matches where one team dominates early, Baron slays drop to below 40% for both teams. Additionally, if the game is decided early via a surrender or forfeit, Baron Nashor may not spawn or be contested, reducing the probability of both teams slaying it.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
No direct venue links for this market. ORYN exclusive markets are intelligence-only.
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