Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Unpredictable early-game chaos (e.g., level-1 fights)
Calibrated 100% · raw 200% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/28/2026, 9:15:39 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
50%
ORYN Consensus
52%
Signal Score
+2.0
Opportunity
1.3
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
1,075,036
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
8
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 200.0¢
Entry: 47-53
—
Resolution
23h
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
1 points
In the upcoming Lower bracket semifinal match between Deep Cross Gaming and Team Liquid in the Mid-Season Invitational Play-In, initially scheduled for June 29 at 4:00AM ET: This market will resolve to the team that secures the first blood in Game 4. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date, this market will resolve to 50-50. If Game 4 begins but is not completed, this market will resolve to whichever team secured the first blood prior to stoppage. If the first blood did not occur, this market will resolve to 50-50. If Game 4 is never played due to forfeit, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to 50-50. If Game 4 is remade, this market will resolve to whichever team secured the first blood prior to the remake. If the first blood did not occur prior to the remake, resolution will be based on the remade game. If Game 4 is completed but first blood never occurred, this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market for 'First Blood in Game 4' between Deep Cross Gaming and Team Liquid in the MSI Play-In Lower Bracket Semifinal is currently at a neutral 50% probability, reflecting no clear advantage for either team in securing the first kill. The outcome hinges on in-game dynamics, team strategies, and player performance during the match.
Deep Cross Gaming could secure first blood if they draft aggressive early-game compositions or if their laners (e.g., top or ADC) prioritize early pressure and invade the enemy jungle. A strong early-game lead often translates to first blood, especially if Team Liquid misplays their lane assignments or lacks coordination in the early minutes.
Team Liquid may secure first blood if they opt for hyper-aggressive early strategies, such as early invades or level-1 skirmishes, leveraging their stronger early-game synergy or individual lane dominance. Alternatively, if Deep Cross Gaming struggles with early-game coordination or suffers from poor draft choices, Team Liquid could capitalize on the advantage.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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