Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Sudden military escalation (e.g., IDF-Hezbollah clashes)
AI updated 6/27/2026, 3:45:20 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 22% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
86%
ORYN Consensus
86%
Signal Score
-0.5
Opportunity
0.4
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV -50.0¢
Entry: 83-89
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
12
Price history
2 points
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of Israel and Lebanon by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding Israel-Lebanon relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the Israel and Lebanon, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market strongly favors a diplomatic meeting between Israel and Lebanon by July 31, 2026, with an 85.5% probability. This reflects sustained regional diplomatic engagement efforts despite historical tensions and geopolitical risks.
Diplomatic pressure from regional and international actors (e.g., U.S., EU, Arab states) may compel both sides to engage in structured talks to address border disputes, Hezbollah's role, and humanitarian concerns. Recent indirect negotiations (e.g., via mediators) could pave the way for direct in-person meetings.
Escalation in violence (e.g., renewed conflict, cross-border attacks) or political instability in either country (e.g., Lebanon's government collapse, Israel's leadership changes) could derail diplomatic efforts. Historical precedent of failed talks may persist due to entrenched positions.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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