This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of Israel and Lebanon by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding Israel-Lebanon relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the Israel and Lebanon, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Key risk: Sudden military escalation (e.g., IDF-Hezbollah clashes)
AI updated 6/27/2026, 3:45:20 AM
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of Israel and Lebanon by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding Israel-Lebanon relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the Israel and Lebanon, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Crowd Consensus
86%
ORYN Consensus
86%
Signal Score
-0.5
Opportunity
0.4
ORYN is polling its model network — Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — for this market. The consensus and per-model dissent will appear here.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
The prediction market strongly favors a diplomatic meeting between Israel and Lebanon by July 31, 2026, with an 85.5% probability. This reflects sustained regional diplomatic engagement efforts despite historical tensions and geopolitical risks.
Diplomatic pressure from regional and international actors (e.g., U.S., EU, Arab states) may compel both sides to engage in structured talks to address border disputes, Hezbollah's role, and humanitarian concerns. Recent indirect negotiations (e.g., via mediators) could pave the way for direct in-person meetings.
Escalation in violence (e.g., renewed conflict, cross-border attacks) or political instability in either country (e.g., Lebanon's government collapse, Israel's leadership changes) could derail diplomatic efforts. Historical precedent of failed talks may persist due to entrenched positions.
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Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? is tracked on ORYN with data sourced from polymarket. Current market-implied probability is 86% while ORYN AI estimates 85.5%.
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