This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Zhengzhou Xinzheng International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 May '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Zhengzhou Xinzheng International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/zhengzhou/ZHCC. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Key risk: Forecast model errors in temperature prediction
AI updated 6/26/2026, 2:37:45 PM
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Zhengzhou Xinzheng International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 May '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Zhengzhou Xinzheng International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/zhengzhou/ZHCC. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Crowd Consensus
50%
ORYN Consensus
50%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
ORYN is polling its model network — Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — for this market. The consensus and per-model dissent will appear here.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
The market reflects a 50% probability that Zhengzhou's highest temperature on May 20, 2026, will be exactly 21°C, based on historical temperature patterns and forecast models. The neutral probability suggests significant uncertainty given the variability in spring weather in Zhengzhou.
A bullish scenario could emerge if a warm air mass from the south or a high-pressure system stabilizes over the region, leading to unseasonably warm temperatures and pushing the daily high to 21°C. Climate trends indicate a slight warming bias in recent years, which may slightly favor this outcome.
A bearish outcome is plausible if a cold front or persistent cloud cover suppresses daytime heating, resulting in a high temperature below 21°C. Historical data shows Zhengzhou's spring temperatures can fluctuate by ±3°C from the seasonal average, increasing the likelihood of deviation.
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Will the highest temperature in Zhengzhou be 21°C on May 20? is tracked on ORYN with data sourced from polymarket. Current market-implied probability is 50% while ORYN AI estimates 50%.
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