Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Data revisions from Wunderground post-resolution
AI updated 6/26/2026, 9:45:26 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 21% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
2%
ORYN Consensus
1%
Signal Score
-0.2
Opportunity
0.2
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV -20.0¢
Entry: 0-5
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
9
Price history
3 points
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHH. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market implies a low probability (1.35%) that Wuhan's highest temperature on June 27, 2026, will reach 31°C, based on historical climatological data and seasonal trends. This reflects typical late June temperatures in Wuhan, which rarely exceed 31°C at this time of year.
A bullish scenario could unfold if an unexpected heatwave or prolonged high-pressure system occurs, pushing temperatures above 30°C for an extended period. Unusual atmospheric conditions, such as a strong El Niño or persistent southerly winds, could contribute to this outcome.
The bearish case is supported by Wuhan's historical climate data, where late June temperatures typically range between 25°C and 30°C, with 31°C being a rare extreme. Persistent cloud cover, rain, or weaker-than-expected seasonal warming could suppress temperatures below 31°C.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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