This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHH. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Key risk: Data revisions from Wunderground post-resolution
AI updated 6/26/2026, 9:45:26 PM
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHH. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd Consensus
2%
ORYN Consensus
1%
Signal Score
-0.2
Opportunity
0.2
ORYN is polling its model network — Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — for this market. The consensus and per-model dissent will appear here.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
The market implies a low probability (1.35%) that Wuhan's highest temperature on June 27, 2026, will reach 31°C, based on historical climatological data and seasonal trends. This reflects typical late June temperatures in Wuhan, which rarely exceed 31°C at this time of year.
A bullish scenario could unfold if an unexpected heatwave or prolonged high-pressure system occurs, pushing temperatures above 30°C for an extended period. Unusual atmospheric conditions, such as a strong El Niño or persistent southerly winds, could contribute to this outcome.
The bearish case is supported by Wuhan's historical climate data, where late June temperatures typically range between 25°C and 30°C, with 31°C being a rare extreme. Persistent cloud cover, rain, or weaker-than-expected seasonal warming could suppress temperatures below 31°C.
No comments yet. Be the first to share your forecast thesis.
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 27? is tracked on ORYN with data sourced from polymarket. Current market-implied probability is 1.6% while ORYN AI estimates 1.4%.
ORYN aggregates forecasting intelligence across Asia-focused categories including crypto, AI, cricket, startups, and global events.
