Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Data revision risks before final resolution
Calibrated 100% · raw 9840% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 7/2/2026, 4:30:34 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 39% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
1%
ORYN Consensus
99%
Signal Score
+98.4
Opportunity
96.4
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
2,678,390
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 9840.0¢
Entry: 0-4
—
Resolution
2d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
10 points
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHH. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market predicts a very low probability (1.05%) that Wuhan's highest temperature on July 4, 2026, will be 23°C or below, based on historical climate data and seasonal trends. Extreme heat in the region during early July makes such a low temperature unlikely.
A bullish outcome (temperature ≤23°C) could occur if an unusual cold snap or prolonged cloud cover suppresses temperatures, possibly due to a rare atmospheric anomaly or unexpected weather system disruption. However, historical data suggests this is highly improbable.
The bearish case (temperature >23°C) aligns with Wuhan's typical July climate, where daily highs frequently exceed 30°C. Factors like urban heat island effect, climate change trends, or persistent high-pressure systems could push temperatures well above this threshold.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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