Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Data source accuracy (Wunderground measurement errors)
AI updated 6/30/2026, 4:31:10 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 50% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
1%
ORYN Consensus
1%
Signal Score
+0.4
Opportunity
0.4
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
1,802,691
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 40.0¢
Entry: 0-4
—
Resolution
2d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
10 points
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHH. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market predicts a low probability (1.10%) that Wuhan's highest temperature on July 2, 2026, will reach 23°C or below, based on historical climate trends and seasonal patterns. This aligns with Wuhan's typical mid-summer heat, which rarely dips below 23°C in early July.
If Wuhan experiences unseasonably cool weather due to atypical monsoon patterns, cloud cover, or a cold front, the highest temperature could fall below 23°C. This would require a significant deviation from historical norms, potentially linked to La Niña or unusual atmospheric circulation.
Given Wuhan's subtropical climate and historical July averages (25-35°C), the likelihood of temperatures staying below 23°C is minimal. Heatwaves, urban heat island effects, or climate change trends would further reduce this probability.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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