This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Key risk: Revisions to temperature data after market resolution
AI updated 6/27/2026, 5:01:15 AM
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd Consensus
29%
ORYN Consensus
28%
Signal Score
-1.5
Opportunity
1.1
ORYN is polling its model network — Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — for this market. The consensus and per-model dissent will appear here.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
The market assigns a 27.5% probability that Tokyo's highest temperature on June 29, 2026, will reach 26°C. Historical climate data and seasonal trends suggest this outcome is plausible but not the most likely.
Tokyo's average high for late June is around 25-27°C, with recent years showing warming trends. A high of 26°C aligns with typical summer patterns, especially if influenced by urban heat island effects or short-term weather anomalies.
June 29 is early in the summer season, and historical data shows temperatures often peak later in July. Cooler-than-average conditions or unexpected weather patterns (e.g., rain, cloud cover) could suppress the high to below 26°C.
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Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 29? is tracked on ORYN with data sourced from polymarket. Current market-implied probability is 29% while ORYN AI estimates 27.5%.
ORYN aggregates forecasting intelligence across Asia-focused categories including crypto, AI, cricket, startups, and global events.
