Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Climate change altering historical temperature baselines
AI updated 6/29/2026, 4:32:17 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
5%
ORYN Consensus
4%
Signal Score
-0.7
Opportunity
0.6
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
1,468,983
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
8
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV -65.0¢
Entry: 2-8
—
Resolution
2d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
4 points
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market suggests a low probability (4%) that Tokyo's highest temperature on July 1, 2026, will reach 31°C, based on historical climate trends and seasonal averages for early July. This aligns with Tokyo's typical summer temperatures, which rarely exceed 31°C in early July.
A bullish scenario could emerge if an unexpected heatwave or an early-season tropical system (e.g., typhoon) disrupts normal weather patterns, leading to a spike in temperatures. Additionally, urban heat island effects or localized microclimate anomalies might push the high to 31°C despite broader trends.
A bearish outcome would reflect normal or below-average temperatures for early July in Tokyo, where historical data shows a mean high of ~28-30°C with limited days exceeding 31°C. Persistent cloud cover, rainfall, or cooler-than-expected ocean currents could suppress the high temperature.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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