Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Potential revisions to historical temperature data after initial publication
AI updated 6/29/2026, 11:00:38 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
31%
ORYN Consensus
31%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
1,512,208
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
8
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 0.0¢
Entry: 28-34
—
Resolution
1d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
2 points
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market prices a 30.50% probability that Tokyo's highest temperature on July 1, 2026, will reach 28°C. Historical climatological data suggests this is a plausible but not dominant outcome for early July.
A high of 28°C is within Tokyo's typical early July range (historical mean ~27-29°C), with recent warming trends increasing the likelihood of temperatures nearing this threshold. Persistent high-pressure systems or urban heat island effects could push daily highs to 28°C.
Tokyo's early July climatological normals show a mean high of ~27°C, with 28°C occurring in only ~30-40% of years. Cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures or atypical weather patterns (e.g., persistent cloud cover) could suppress temperatures below 28°C.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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