This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Taipei Songshan Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Taipei Songshan Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSS. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Key risk: Data revisions to temperature records after market resolution
AI updated 6/27/2026, 7:15:20 AM
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Taipei Songshan Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Taipei Songshan Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSS. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd Consensus
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ORYN Consensus
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Signal Score
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Opportunity
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ORYN is polling its model network — Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — for this market. The consensus and per-model dissent will appear here.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
The market indicates an extremely low probability (0.35%) of Taipei reaching 30°C or higher on June 27, 2026, reflecting historically low temperatures for late June. Historical climate data suggests typical highs of 28-29°C, with rare exceedances.
A heatwave or persistent southerly flow could push temperatures above 30°C, especially if urban heat island effects amplify readings. Unusual atmospheric blocking patterns or a delayed monsoon onset might elevate daily highs beyond historical norms.
Late June in Taipei typically features high humidity and frequent rainfall, suppressing daytime highs. Climatological averages (28-29°C) and monsoon dynamics make 30°C+ conditions unlikely without anomalous weather drivers.
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Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C or higher on June 27? is tracked on ORYN with data sourced from polymarket. Current market-implied probability is 0.4% while ORYN AI estimates 0.4%.
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