Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Data revisions to temperature records post-resolution
AI updated 7/2/2026, 4:45:45 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 37% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
6%
ORYN Consensus
6%
Signal Score
+0.5
Opportunity
0.4
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
2,697,790
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 50.0¢
Entry: 2-8
—
Resolution
2d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
13 points
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market suggests a low probability (6%) that Shenzhen's highest temperature on July 4, 2026, will reach 32°C, based on historical climate data and seasonal trends. The resolution depends on real-time meteorological records from Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station.
A bullish scenario could emerge if an unexpected heatwave or prolonged high-pressure system affects South China in early July 2026, pushing temperatures above 32°C. Unusual atmospheric conditions, such as a delayed monsoon or strong solar radiation, could also contribute to extreme heat.
A bearish scenario is more likely given Shenzhen's subtropical climate, where July typically sees highs around 30-31°C. Persistent cloud cover, rainfall from the South China Sea monsoon, or atmospheric cooling events could suppress temperatures below 32°C.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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