Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Revisions to historical weather data post-resolution
AI updated 6/29/2026, 7:15:16 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
46%
ORYN Consensus
46%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
1,664,405
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
8
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
MEDIUM
EV 0.0¢
Entry: 43-48
—
Resolution
11h
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
1 points
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market predicts a 45.5% probability that Shanghai's highest temperature on June 30, 2026, will reach 26°C. Historical climate data for Shanghai in late June suggests moderate variability, with temperatures typically ranging between 24°C and 30°C.
A bullish scenario could unfold if a strong high-pressure system or heatwave settles over East Asia, pushing temperatures toward the upper range of historical averages. Above-average sea surface temperatures in the East China Sea may also contribute to warmer-than-usual conditions.
A bearish outcome may result from persistent cloud cover, monsoon activity, or cooler-than-average air masses from northern China. Unseasonal rainfall or atmospheric instability could suppress peak temperatures below 26°C.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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