Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Climate data revisions prior to market resolution (though unlikely to alter whole-degree readings)
AI updated 6/29/2026, 5:15:49 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
1%
ORYN Consensus
1%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
1,469,098
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
8
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 0.0¢
Entry: 0-4
—
Resolution
2d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
3 points
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market has a 1.35% probability of Shanghai's highest temperature reaching exactly 23°C on July 1, 2026. Historical climatological data suggests this is a low-probability event given Shanghai's average July temperatures.
A bullish scenario could materialize if an unusual weather pattern, such as a heat dome or a strong high-pressure system, affects Shanghai in early July 2026, pushing temperatures to the 23°C threshold. Unseasonably warm ocean currents or a delayed monsoon season could also contribute to warmer-than-average conditions.
A bearish outcome is more likely given Shanghai's historical July temperature averages (typically 26-32°C). Cooler-than-expected conditions could result from an early monsoon onset, increased cloud cover, or unseasonable rainfall suppressing daytime highs below the target temperature.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
No direct venue links for this market. ORYN exclusive markets are intelligence-only.
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