This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Incheon Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Key risk: Climate data revisions after market resolution
AI updated 6/27/2026, 4:15:39 AM
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Incheon Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd Consensus
16%
ORYN Consensus
16%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
ORYN is polling its model network — Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — for this market. The consensus and per-model dissent will appear here.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
The prediction market suggests a low probability (15.50%) that Seoul's highest temperature on June 29, 2026, will reach 26°C. Historical climate data and seasonal trends indicate this is unlikely given typical June temperatures in the region.
A bullish scenario could unfold if an unexpected heatwave or unusual weather pattern (e.g., prolonged high-pressure system) pushes temperatures to 26°C or above. Early monsoon delays or localized factors may also contribute to higher-than-average readings.
The bear case argues that Seoul's June climate typically ranges between 20-24°C, making 26°C an outlier. Persistent cloud cover, monsoon rains, or cooler-than-average air masses could suppress temperatures below the threshold.
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Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 29? is tracked on ORYN with data sourced from polymarket. Current market-implied probability is 15.5% while ORYN AI estimates 15.5%.
ORYN aggregates forecasting intelligence across Asia-focused categories including crypto, AI, cricket, startups, and global events.
