Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: revisions_to_meteorological_data_after_resolution_period
Calibrated 100% · raw 1550% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/29/2026, 4:15:44 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
2%
ORYN Consensus
17%
Signal Score
+15.5
Opportunity
13.2
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
1,489,259
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
8
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 1550.0¢
Entry: 0-4
—
Resolution
2d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
3 points
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Incheon Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market indicates a low probability (17%) that Seoul's highest temperature on July 1, 2026, will reach 25°C, based on historical temperature trends and seasonal patterns. The resolution depends on precise meteorological data from Wunderground for Incheon Intl Airport Station.
A bullish outcome could occur if an unexpected heatwave develops in late June or early July 2026, driven by high-pressure systems or El Niño conditions, pushing temperatures above the historical average. Unseasonably warm weather patterns or urban heat island effects in Seoul could also contribute.
A bearish outcome is more likely given Seoul's typical July climate, where average high temperatures range between 27-29°C, but 25°C is below the historical mean. Persistent cloud cover, monsoon-related rainfall, or cooler-than-average ocean temperatures could suppress peak temperatures.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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