Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: temperature_revisions_by_wunderground
Calibrated 100% · raw 150% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/29/2026, 12:00:42 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
10%
ORYN Consensus
8%
Signal Score
-1.5
Opportunity
1.3
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
1,542,945
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
8
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV -150.0¢
Entry: 6-12
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
2 points
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 29 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/wa/seatac/KSEA. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market indicates a low probability (9.50%) that Seattle's highest temperature on June 29, 2026, will fall within the 64-65°F range, suggesting skepticism about such precise conditions occurring. Historical data and seasonal trends for late June in Seattle typically show higher temperatures, making this narrow range less likely.
A bullish outcome could result from an unexpected cool front or marine layer suppression, leading to cooler-than-average temperatures. Unseasonably cloudy or rainy conditions in late June could also push the high into the 64-65°F range. Persistent onshore flow from the Pacific may contribute to this scenario.
A bearish outcome is more likely given Seattle's typical late-June climate, where highs often exceed 70°F. Heat dome formation or a strong ridge could push temperatures well above this range. Climate trends showing warming summers in the Pacific Northwest further reduce the probability of a 64-65°F high.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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