Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Potential revisions to temperature data after market resolution
Calibrated 100% · raw 5940% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 7/2/2026, 3:15:47 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 39% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
1%
ORYN Consensus
60%
Signal Score
+59.4
Opportunity
44.5
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
2,678,390
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 5940.0¢
Entry: 0-4
—
Resolution
1d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
1 points
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market predicts a 60% probability that the highest temperature in São Paulo on July 3, 2026, will reach 29°C or higher, based on historical climate trends and seasonal forecasts for the region. The resolution depends on real-time temperature data from Wunderground, which may introduce slight variability due to measurement precision and revisions.
Climate trends in São Paulo indicate increasing temperatures due to global warming, with July historically averaging around 25-28°C. A 60% probability suggests a mild El Niño or urban heat island effect could push temperatures to 29°C or above. Recent heatwaves in Brazil (e.g., 2024) support the likelihood of extreme temperatures.
São Paulo's July climate typically remains cooler, with average highs around 25-27°C. The 60% probability is low, indicating a higher chance of temperatures staying below 29°C. Seasonal forecasts for mid-year in southeastern Brazil often favor stable, mild conditions, reducing the likelihood of extreme heat.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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