This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 28 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the San Francisco International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Key risk: data_revision_until_resolution
AI updated 6/27/2026, 2:00:52 AM
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 28 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the San Francisco International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd Consensus
2%
ORYN Consensus
92%
Signal Score
+90.3
Opportunity
76.8
ORYN is polling its model network — Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — for this market. The consensus and per-model dissent will appear here.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
The prediction market indicates a low 1.70% probability that San Francisco's highest temperature on June 28, 2026, will fall within the 62-63°F range, based on historical climate data and seasonal trends. The resolution hinges on precise temperature recordings from the San Francisco International Airport Station.
A bullish outcome could materialize if an unseasonably warm weather pattern develops, such as a strong high-pressure system or downslope winds (e.g., Santa Ana winds), pushing temperatures into the 62-63°F range. Climate variability or localized urban heat island effects might also contribute to higher-than-expected readings.
A bearish outcome is more likely given San Francisco's typical June climate, where average highs are around 67°F, with frequent marine layer influence suppressing temperatures. Persistent fog or cloud cover, coupled with onshore flow, could result in a high temperature below 62°F, resolving the market in the lower range.
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Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on June 28? is tracked on ORYN with data sourced from polymarket. Current market-implied probability is 1.7% while ORYN AI estimates 92%.
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