This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Key risk: Data revisions from Wunderground post-resolution deadline
AI updated 6/26/2026, 5:30:27 PM
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd Consensus
6%
ORYN Consensus
6%
Signal Score
+0.5
Opportunity
0.4
ORYN is polling its model network — Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — for this market. The consensus and per-model dissent will appear here.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
The probability of Paris reaching 33°C on June 28, 2026, is low at 5.50%, indicating minimal market confidence in extreme heat for that date. Historical trends and seasonal averages suggest this outcome is unlikely without unusual climatic conditions.
Unseasonably warm weather patterns, such as a strong high-pressure system or Saharan air intrusion, could push temperatures to 33°C. Climate change trends may also increase the likelihood of extreme heat events in late June.
Typical late June temperatures in Paris average around 23-26°C, making 33°C an outlier. Persistent cloud cover, rain, or cooler-than-average air masses would likely prevent such high temperatures.
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Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on June 28? is tracked on ORYN with data sourced from polymarket. Current market-implied probability is 5.5% while ORYN AI estimates 6%.
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