Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Uncertainty in long-range weather forecasting
AI updated 6/26/2026, 8:30:40 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 21% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
26%
ORYN Consensus
25%
Signal Score
-1.0
Opportunity
0.8
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV -100.0¢
Entry: 23-29
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
12
Price history
4 points
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market reflects a 27% probability that the highest temperature in Paris on June 28, 2026, will reach 32°C, based on historical climate data and seasonal trends. This suggests a relatively low likelihood given typical June temperatures in the region.
A bullish scenario could unfold if a heatwave or high-pressure system stabilizes over Western Europe, leading to sustained high temperatures. Unusual weather patterns, such as a delayed monsoon or atmospheric blocking, could push temperatures above the 32°C threshold.
A bearish outcome is more likely given historical June averages in Paris, which rarely exceed 30°C. Persistent cloud cover, rainfall, or cooler-than-average conditions could suppress temperatures below 32°C, aligning with typical seasonal norms.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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