This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Key risk: Uncertainty in long-range weather forecasting
AI updated 6/26/2026, 8:30:40 PM
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd Consensus
26%
ORYN Consensus
25%
Signal Score
-1.0
Opportunity
0.8
ORYN is polling its model network — Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — for this market. The consensus and per-model dissent will appear here.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
The market reflects a 27% probability that the highest temperature in Paris on June 28, 2026, will reach 32°C, based on historical climate data and seasonal trends. This suggests a relatively low likelihood given typical June temperatures in the region.
A bullish scenario could unfold if a heatwave or high-pressure system stabilizes over Western Europe, leading to sustained high temperatures. Unusual weather patterns, such as a delayed monsoon or atmospheric blocking, could push temperatures above the 32°C threshold.
A bearish outcome is more likely given historical June averages in Paris, which rarely exceed 30°C. Persistent cloud cover, rainfall, or cooler-than-average conditions could suppress temperatures below 32°C, aligning with typical seasonal norms.
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Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 28? is tracked on ORYN with data sourced from polymarket. Current market-implied probability is 26% while ORYN AI estimates 25%.
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