This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Key risk: Climate data revisions post-resolution deadline
AI updated 6/26/2026, 8:45:34 PM
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd Consensus
4%
ORYN Consensus
4%
Signal Score
+0.5
Opportunity
0.4
ORYN is polling its model network — Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — for this market. The consensus and per-model dissent will appear here.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
The prediction market assigns a 3.50% probability that Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station records a highest temperature of 38°C on June 27, 2026. Historical climate data and seasonal trends suggest this is an outlier event, with June temperatures rarely exceeding 35°C in the region.
A persistent high-pressure system over Western Europe could drive temperatures to 38°C, especially if preceded by a prolonged heatwave. Climate change trends indicate increasing frequency of extreme heat events, though June heatwaves remain statistically uncommon in Paris.
Seasonal norms for late June in Paris typically cap highs at 25-30°C, with 38°C historically unlikely. The market may reflect overestimation of early-season heat extremes, as June heatwaves are rare and often brief in the region.
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Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 27? is tracked on ORYN with data sourced from polymarket. Current market-implied probability is 3.5% while ORYN AI estimates 4%.
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