This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Marcos A. Gelabert Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Marcos A. Gelabert Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pa/panama-city/MPMG. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Key risk: Data revisions to historical records
AI updated 6/26/2026, 1:08:59 PM
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Marcos A. Gelabert Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Marcos A. Gelabert Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pa/panama-city/MPMG. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd Consensus
0%
ORYN Consensus
0%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
ORYN is polling its model network — Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — for this market. The consensus and per-model dissent will appear here.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
The prediction market for a 26°C high temperature in Panama City on June 26, 2026, shows an extremely low probability (0.05%) based on historical climate data and seasonal trends. The likelihood of this event is negligible due to Panama City's tropical climate, which typically records highs well above 26°C during June.
A bullish outcome could occur if an unprecedented cold front or extreme weather anomaly affects Panama City in late June 2026, suppressing temperatures to 26°C. Such events are rare but not impossible, as historical outliers (e.g., 2024's unusual cold snap in Central America) demonstrate.
The bear case is dominant, as Panama City's June climate normals show average highs of 30-32°C, with extreme highs rarely dipping below 28°C. Historical data since 2000 shows no recorded highs of 26°C in June, making this outcome highly improbable under typical conditions.
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Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 26°C on June 26? is tracked on ORYN with data sourced from polymarket. Current market-implied probability is 0.1% while ORYN AI estimates 0.1%.
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