Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Data revisions from Wunderground
AI updated 7/1/2026, 2:15:18 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 50% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
6%
ORYN Consensus
6%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
2,208,027
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 0.0¢
Entry: 2-8
—
Resolution
1d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
4 points
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Marcos A. Gelabert Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Marcos A. Gelabert Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pa/panama-city/MPMG. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market predicts a low 5.5% probability that Panama City's highest temperature on July 2, 2026, will reach 34°C, based on historical temperature trends and seasonal climatology for the region. Historical data and climate models suggest temperatures in early July typically peak below this threshold.
A bullish outcome could materialize if an unusual heatwave or atmospheric blocking pattern drives temperatures above the seasonal norm, potentially due to El Niño conditions or localized urban heat island effects. Unverified early-season heat anomalies in the region could also justify a higher probability.
The bear case is supported by long-term climate data showing that Panama City's average high in early July is around 31-32°C, with 34°C being an outlier. Persistent cloud cover, increased precipitation, or trade wind variations could suppress temperatures further.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
No direct venue links for this market. ORYN exclusive markets are intelligence-only.
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