Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Data revisions altering the final recorded temperature
AI updated 6/27/2026, 12:30:35 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 21% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
35%
ORYN Consensus
34%
Signal Score
-0.5
Opportunity
0.4
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
MEDIUM
EV -50.0¢
Entry: 31-38
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
6
Price history
8 points
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 28 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market predicts a 34% chance that New York City's highest temperature on June 28, 2026, will fall within the 82-83°F range at LaGuardia Airport. Historical climatological data and seasonal trends suggest this outcome is plausible but not favored.
Climate trends indicate rising temperatures in the Northeast U.S., with June historically recording average highs near 80°F. Unseasonable warmth or urban heat island effects could push temperatures into the 82-83°F range. Persistent high-pressure systems or heatwaves in late June could also support this outcome.
La Niña or other climate patterns may suppress temperatures below the 82°F threshold. Unseasonal cloud cover, precipitation, or cooler-than-average air masses could prevent the high from reaching the target range. Long-term climate models suggest June 2026 may trend slightly cooler than recent years.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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