Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Data revisions to temperature records
AI updated 7/2/2026, 2:31:00 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 38% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
3%
ORYN Consensus
3%
Signal Score
+0.8
Opportunity
0.8
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
2,656,869
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 80.0¢
Entry: 0-6
—
Resolution
1d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
4 points
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 3 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market indicates a low probability (3.45%) that New York City's highest temperature on July 3, 2026, will fall within the 110-111°F range at LaGuardia Airport. Historical and climatological trends suggest this extreme heat event is unlikely.
Unprecedented atmospheric conditions, such as a strong heat dome or high-pressure system, could push temperatures into the 110-111°F range. A rare combination of factors like urban heat island effect and global warming trends may contribute to this extreme outcome.
Historical data shows NYC's highest recorded temperature is 106°F (July 9, 1936), making 110-111°F highly improbable. Standard summer weather patterns and climate models do not project such extreme heat for the region.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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