Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Uncertainty in long-range weather modeling
Calibrated 100% · raw 310% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/28/2026, 5:15:23 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
18%
ORYN Consensus
15%
Signal Score
-3.1
Opportunity
2.3
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
962,552
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
8
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV -310.0¢
Entry: 15-21
—
Resolution
2d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
1 points
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Munich Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market indicates an 18.10% probability that Munich's highest temperature on June 30, 2026, will reach or exceed 31°C. Historical climate data and seasonal trends suggest this is a low-probability event, though not impossible.
A heatwave affecting Central Europe in late June 2026 could push temperatures in Munich above 31°C. Persistent high-pressure systems, reduced cloud cover, and strong solar radiation could contribute to extreme heat, aligning with broader regional warming trends.
Climate projections for late June in Munich typically show average highs around 23-25°C, with extreme heatwaves being rare. Overcast conditions, precipitation, or cooler air masses from the Atlantic could suppress temperatures below the 31°C threshold.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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