Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Early-season heatwaves becoming more frequent due to climate change
Calibrated 100% · raw 1235% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/27/2026, 5:30:33 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 21% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
14%
ORYN Consensus
2%
Signal Score
-12.3
Opportunity
10.5
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV -1235.0¢
Entry: 11-17
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
11
Price history
4 points
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Munich Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market assesses a low 1.7% probability that Munich's highest temperature on June 29, 2026, will reach 32°C. Historical climate data and seasonal trends suggest this outcome is unlikely, though not impossible.
A rare heatwave could push temperatures to 32°C or higher due to an extreme weather pattern, such as a strong high-pressure system or Saharan air intrusion. Munich has recorded 32°C+ in late June historically (e.g., 2019: 33.5°C), though such events are infrequent.
Standard late-June temperatures in Munich typically range between 20-28°C, with 32°C being an outlier. Climate change may increase average temperatures, but extreme heat this early in summer remains statistically unlikely based on historical records.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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