This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Munich Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Key risk: Limited historical precedent for 38°C in late June in Munich
AI updated 6/27/2026, 11:00:27 AM
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Munich Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd Consensus
5%
ORYN Consensus
5%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
ORYN is polling its model network — Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — for this market. The consensus and per-model dissent will appear here.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
The prediction market assigns a 4.8% probability that Munich's highest temperature on June 27, 2026, will reach 38°C. Historical data and climate trends suggest this extreme heat is unlikely for late June in Munich.
A severe heatwave, amplified by climate change, could push temperatures to 38°C in Munich by late June 2026. Persistent high-pressure systems or Saharan airflow could drive such an outcome, aligning with recent record-breaking European heat events.
Munich's late June climate typically peaks around 25-30°C, with 38°C being historically unprecedented. Cooler-than-average conditions, cloud cover, or regional weather patterns may suppress temperatures below this threshold.
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Will the highest temperature in Munich be 38°C on June 27? is tracked on ORYN with data sourced from polymarket. Current market-implied probability is 4.8% while ORYN AI estimates 4.8%.
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