Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Revisions to historical temperature data by Wunderground
AI updated 6/27/2026, 2:00:26 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 23% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
37%
ORYN Consensus
37%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
MEDIUM
EV 0.0¢
Entry: 34-40
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
7
Price history
2 points
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Munich Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market assesses a 36.5% probability that Munich's highest temperature on June 27, 2026, will reach 37°C. Historical climate data and seasonal trends suggest low likelihood, but rising global temperatures and potential heatwave events introduce uncertainty.
A persistent high-pressure system over Central Europe combined with a strong Saharan heat plume could push temperatures to 37°C. Munich has recorded 36°C+ in recent years (e.g., 2015, 2019), and climate change may increase the frequency of extreme heat events. Early-season heatwaves could also see temperatures spike unexpectedly.
June is typically mild in Munich, with historical averages around 24-26°C. Extreme 37°C readings are rare in late June, and weather models currently show no strong signals for such conditions. Persistent cloud cover or Atlantic low-pressure systems could suppress temperatures.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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