Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: data_revision_lag
Calibrated 100% · raw 8560% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/26/2026, 9:15:34 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 21% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
0%
ORYN Consensus
86%
Signal Score
+85.6
Opportunity
70.2
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 8560.0¢
Entry: 0-3
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
9
Price history
1 points
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Munich Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market predicts an 86% probability that Munich's highest temperature on June 27, 2026, will exceed 32°C, based on historical climate trends and early seasonal patterns. The low market probability (0.40%) suggests limited trader engagement or uncertainty in long-term forecasts.
Climate change trends indicate increasing summer temperatures in Bavaria, with Munich frequently exceeding 32°C in late June in recent years (e.g., 2022: 34.8°C). Early seasonal models for 2026 suggest above-average heat, supported by persistent high-pressure systems over Central Europe.
Historical data shows Munich's June 27 temperatures often remain below 32°C (e.g., 2023: 29.1°C), with variability due to Atlantic weather patterns. A cooler-than-usual spring or early July transition could suppress peak temperatures despite broader warming trends.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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