This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Munich Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Key risk: data_revision_lag
AI updated 6/26/2026, 9:15:34 PM
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Munich Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd Consensus
0%
ORYN Consensus
86%
Signal Score
+85.6
Opportunity
70.2
ORYN is polling its model network — Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — for this market. The consensus and per-model dissent will appear here.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
The market predicts an 86% probability that Munich's highest temperature on June 27, 2026, will exceed 32°C, based on historical climate trends and early seasonal patterns. The low market probability (0.40%) suggests limited trader engagement or uncertainty in long-term forecasts.
Climate change trends indicate increasing summer temperatures in Bavaria, with Munich frequently exceeding 32°C in late June in recent years (e.g., 2022: 34.8°C). Early seasonal models for 2026 suggest above-average heat, supported by persistent high-pressure systems over Central Europe.
Historical data shows Munich's June 27 temperatures often remain below 32°C (e.g., 2023: 29.1°C), with variability due to Atlantic weather patterns. A cooler-than-usual spring or early July transition could suppress peak temperatures despite broader warming trends.
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Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C or below on June 27? is tracked on ORYN with data sourced from polymarket. Current market-implied probability is 0.4% while ORYN AI estimates 86%.
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