Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Data source revisions (Wunderground adjustments)
AI updated 6/30/2026, 7:30:27 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 46% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
1%
ORYN Consensus
1%
Signal Score
-0.4
Opportunity
0.4
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
1,833,545
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV -40.0¢
Entry: 0-4
—
Resolution
2d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
6 points
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Munich Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market for Munich's highest temperature on July 2, 2026, currently reflects a 0.85% probability of reaching 22°C. Historical data and seasonal trends suggest this is an unlikely outcome, given Munich's average July temperatures.
A bullish scenario could materialize if an unusual weather pattern, such as a heatwave, persists into early July, driving temperatures significantly above the seasonal average. Unseasonable high-pressure systems or Saharan air intrusions could elevate the peak temperature to 22°C.
A bearish outcome is more plausible, as Munich's average July highs typically range between 23-25°C, with extreme peaks rarely occurring in early July. Cooler-than-average conditions, persistent cloud cover, or rain could suppress temperatures below 22°C.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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