Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Data revisions from NOAA after market resolution
AI updated 6/26/2026, 7:45:53 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 23% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
1%
ORYN Consensus
1%
Signal Score
-0.1
Opportunity
0.1
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV -10.0¢
Entry: 0-4
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
7
Price history
6 points
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 28 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market assigns a 1.15% probability to Moscow's highest temperature reaching 26°C on June 28, 2026, based on historical NOAA data for late June. This is significantly below the 50th percentile of historical June 28 daily highs in Moscow, suggesting low market confidence in such an outcome.
A bullish scenario could materialize if a strong high-pressure system or heat dome settles over European Russia in late June 2026, bringing sustained warm air from Central Asia. Unusual jet stream patterns or early-season blocking ridges could elevate temperatures beyond typical ranges for the date.
A bearish outcome is more likely given Moscow's historical climate data, which shows late June highs rarely exceeding 24-25°C. Persistent cloud cover, unseasonable rainfall, or cold air advection from the Arctic could suppress temperatures further, keeping the high below 26°C.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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