This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 28 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Key risk: Data revisions from NOAA after market resolution
AI updated 6/26/2026, 7:45:53 PM
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 28 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd Consensus
1%
ORYN Consensus
1%
Signal Score
-0.1
Opportunity
0.1
ORYN is polling its model network — Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — for this market. The consensus and per-model dissent will appear here.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
The market assigns a 1.15% probability to Moscow's highest temperature reaching 26°C on June 28, 2026, based on historical NOAA data for late June. This is significantly below the 50th percentile of historical June 28 daily highs in Moscow, suggesting low market confidence in such an outcome.
A bullish scenario could materialize if a strong high-pressure system or heat dome settles over European Russia in late June 2026, bringing sustained warm air from Central Asia. Unusual jet stream patterns or early-season blocking ridges could elevate temperatures beyond typical ranges for the date.
A bearish outcome is more likely given Moscow's historical climate data, which shows late June highs rarely exceeding 24-25°C. Persistent cloud cover, unseasonable rainfall, or cold air advection from the Arctic could suppress temperatures further, keeping the high below 26°C.
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Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C on June 28? is tracked on ORYN with data sourced from polymarket. Current market-implied probability is 1.3% while ORYN AI estimates 1.2%.
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