Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Data revision delays from NOAA
AI updated 6/29/2026, 4:32:54 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
2%
ORYN Consensus
2%
Signal Score
-0.5
Opportunity
0.4
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
1,489,149
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
8
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV -50.0¢
Entry: 0-5
—
Resolution
2d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
8 points
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 1 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market assesses a low 1.95% probability that Moscow's highest temperature on July 1, 2026, will be 22°C or below, based on historical NOAA data and seasonal trends. The low probability reflects the unlikelihood of such a cool peak in mid-summer for the region.
A cooler-than-expected July 1 could result from unusual weather patterns, such as prolonged cloud cover, persistent rain, or an anomalous cold air mass moving into the region. Historical outliers (e.g., 2020's cooler-than-average start to July) suggest such events are possible but rare.
The bear case assumes typical mid-summer conditions in Moscow, where temperatures frequently exceed 22°C in July due to continental climate patterns. Heatwaves or stable high-pressure systems would push the probability toward higher temperatures, aligning with historical norms.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
No direct venue links for this market. ORYN exclusive markets are intelligence-only.
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