This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Key risk: data revisions from Wunderground after initial publication
AI updated 6/27/2026, 4:31:24 AM
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd Consensus
1%
ORYN Consensus
1%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
ORYN is polling its model network — Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — for this market. The consensus and per-model dissent will appear here.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
The probability of Milan's highest temperature reaching 41°C on June 29, 2026, is extremely low at 0.70%, reflecting historically rare extreme heat events for the date. Historical data and climate patterns suggest temperatures of this magnitude are highly unlikely during late June in Milan.
A rare but plausible meteorological setup could push temperatures to 41°C, such as an intense heat dome over Italy combined with a strong African high-pressure system. Persistent drought conditions or urban heat island effects might also contribute to extreme readings. However, these scenarios remain outliers.
Climate norms for Milan in late June typically range between 22-30°C, with 41°C being a record-breaking anomaly. No prior instances of 41°C have been recorded in June at Malpensa Airport, and early-season heatwaves rarely sustain such extremes. Forecast models also show no near-term signals for such temperatures.
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Will the highest temperature in Milan be 41°C on June 29? is tracked on ORYN with data sourced from polymarket. Current market-implied probability is 0.7% while ORYN AI estimates 0.7%.
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