This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Key risk: Data revisions from Wunderground after resolution source update
AI updated 6/27/2026, 4:31:17 AM
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd Consensus
3%
ORYN Consensus
3%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
ORYN is polling its model network — Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — for this market. The consensus and per-model dissent will appear here.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
The market predicts a low probability (2.65%) that Milan's highest temperature on June 29, 2026, will reach 40°C. Historical climate data and seasonal trends suggest this outcome is unlikely, but localized extreme heat events cannot be entirely ruled out.
A rare but plausible extreme heatwave could push Milan's temperature to 40°C on June 29, 2026, driven by persistent high-pressure systems, Saharan air intrusions, or climate anomalies. Such events, while infrequent, have occurred in the region in recent years (e.g., 2022 European heatwave).
Climate trends and historical data indicate Milan rarely exceeds 35-37°C in late June. The probability of hitting 40°C is extremely low, with only a few recorded instances in the past century. Current forecasts for June 2026 suggest near-average temperatures.
No comments yet. Be the first to share your forecast thesis.
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 40°C on June 29? is tracked on ORYN with data sourced from polymarket. Current market-implied probability is 2.7% while ORYN AI estimates 2.7%.
ORYN aggregates forecasting intelligence across Asia-focused categories including crypto, AI, cricket, startups, and global events.
