This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Key risk: data_revision_lag
AI updated 6/27/2026, 7:30:19 AM
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd Consensus
1%
ORYN Consensus
1%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
ORYN is polling its model network — Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — for this market. The consensus and per-model dissent will appear here.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
The prediction market for Milan reaching 39°C on June 29, 2026, has a low probability of 0.65%, indicating minimal consensus on extreme heat. Historical data and seasonal trends suggest this threshold is unlikely but not impossible.
Climate change trends and recent heatwaves in Europe could push Milan's temperatures to 39°C. Urban heat island effects or a strong high-pressure system might contribute to localized extreme heat, though such events are historically rare for late June.
Milan's late June climate typically averages highs of 25-28°C, with 39°C occurring only in exceptional heatwaves (e.g., 2003, 2022). The market's low probability reflects the rarity of such conditions so early in the summer season.
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Will the highest temperature in Milan be 39°C on June 29? is tracked on ORYN with data sourced from polymarket. Current market-implied probability is 0.7% while ORYN AI estimates 0.7%.
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