Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Climate change-induced temperature volatility
AI updated 7/2/2026, 9:15:21 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 21% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
35%
ORYN Consensus
35%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 0.0¢
Entry: 31-38
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
2
Price history
2 points
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market indicates a 34.5% probability that Milan's highest temperature on July 2, 2026, will reach 32°C. This forecast is based on historical temperature data and current climate trends for the region.
A bullish scenario suggests Milan could hit 32°C due to prolonged heatwaves in Southern Europe, influenced by climate change and high-pressure systems over the Mediterranean. Late June and early July often see peak summer temperatures in Northern Italy, increasing the likelihood of extreme heat.
A bearish scenario argues that Milan may not reach 32°C due to potential unseasonal weather patterns, such as cooler Atlantic air masses or increased cloud cover reducing solar heating. Historical data shows variability in early July temperatures, with some years remaining below 30°C.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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