Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Data revision risks (temperature recalibrations post-resolution)
Calibrated 100% · raw 455% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/29/2026, 4:32:36 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
4%
ORYN Consensus
8%
Signal Score
+4.5
Opportunity
4.2
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
1,468,573
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
8
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 455.0¢
Entry: 1-7
—
Resolution
2d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
14 points
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market probability of 8.25% for Milan's highest temperature reaching 37°C on July 1, 2026, reflects historically low likelihood based on climatological averages and recent trends. This low probability is supported by the rarity of such extreme temperatures in early July for Milan.
A bullish outcome could occur if an exceptional heatwave develops in late June or early July 2026, driven by high-pressure systems or Saharan air intrusions. Unusually warm sea surface temperatures in the Mediterranean could amplify the heat. Persistent anticyclonic conditions over Northern Italy could sustain extreme temperatures for multiple days.
The bearish case is strong given Milan's historical climate data, where 37°C in early July is rare (average highs are ~28-30°C). Mild to moderate temperatures are more likely due to seasonal norms, cloud cover, or precipitation disrupting heat buildup. Long-term warming trends may not yet manifest in single-day extremes for this region.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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