Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: potential revisions to temperature data post-resolution
AI updated 6/29/2026, 4:32:29 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
4%
ORYN Consensus
4%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
1,468,573
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
8
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 0.0¢
Entry: 1-7
—
Resolution
2d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
1 points
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market assigns a 4% probability to Milan's highest temperature reaching at least 36°C on July 1, 2026, based on historical climate data and seasonal trends. This low probability reflects Milan's typical July temperatures, which rarely exceed 36°C at Malpensa Airport.
A prolonged heatwave driven by high-pressure systems over Southern Europe could push Milan's temperature above 36°C. Climate change trends may also increase the likelihood of extreme heat events, though historical data suggests this remains unlikely for a single day in early July.
Milan's historical climate data shows that July 1 temperatures at Malpensa Airport typically range between 20-32°C, with 36°C being a rare extreme. Current forecasts and seasonal patterns do not indicate a high probability of such an event, supporting a low-resolution probability.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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