Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: data_precision_limited_to_whole_degrees_celsius
AI updated 7/1/2026, 11:15:19 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 45% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
1%
ORYN Consensus
1%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
2,346,098
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 0.0¢
Entry: 0-4
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
1 points
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market predicts a low probability (0.85%) that Milan's highest temperature on July 1, 2026, will reach 33°C, based on historical climate data and seasonal trends. The resolution depends on real-time temperature records from Malpensa Airport, with adjustments allowed until the first data point is published.
A bullish scenario could emerge if an unexpected heatwave or high-pressure system over Europe drives temperatures significantly above seasonal norms. Unusually warm ocean currents or atmospheric anomalies might push Milan's peak temperature toward 33°C. Historical outliers (e.g., 2019's heatwave) suggest such spikes are possible but rare.
The bearish case assumes normal or below-average temperatures, given Milan's typical July climate (average highs around 28-29°C). Persistent cloud cover, rain, or a shift in weather patterns could suppress peak temperatures well below 33°C. Climate trends toward milder summers further reduce the likelihood.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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