Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: uncertainty in long-range weather forecasting
Calibrated 100% · raw 150% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/27/2026, 9:30:32 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 21% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
24%
ORYN Consensus
22%
Signal Score
-1.5
Opportunity
1.1
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV -150.0¢
Entry: 20-26
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
7
Price history
3 points
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 28 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Miami Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market indicates a 23.5% probability that Miami's highest temperature on June 28, 2026, will fall within the 92-93°F range. This low probability suggests skepticism about extreme heat occurring on that specific date.
Historical data shows Miami frequently experiences temperatures in the 92-93°F range during late June, with climate trends indicating increasing heatwaves. A strong high-pressure system or delayed sea breeze could push temperatures into this range.
Late June in Miami often sees temperatures below 92°F due to seasonal averages and potential cloud cover or rain. A tropical disturbance or early-season cold front could suppress temperatures further.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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