Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: data_revision_delays
Calibrated 100% · raw 375% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/26/2026, 11:15:19 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 21% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
8%
ORYN Consensus
12%
Signal Score
+3.8
Opportunity
3.2
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 375.0¢
Entry: 5-11
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
12
Price history
5 points
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market reflects a low probability (10.25%) that Mexico City's highest temperature on June 27, 2026, will reach 26°C, based on historical climate data and seasonal trends. The resolution depends on real-time meteorological records from Wunderground, with precision to whole degrees Celsius.
A bullish outcome could occur if an unusual heatwave or weather anomaly pushes temperatures to 26°C, potentially driven by climate change trends or localized atmospheric conditions. Historical outliers (e.g., 2023's record heat) suggest such events are possible but rare.
The bear case assumes typical June conditions, where Mexico City's average high is around 24-25°C, making 26°C an unlikely outlier. Persistent cloud cover, rainfall, or cooler-than-normal weather patterns could suppress temperatures below the threshold.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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