This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Key risk: data_revision_delays
AI updated 6/26/2026, 11:15:19 PM
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd Consensus
8%
ORYN Consensus
12%
Signal Score
+3.8
Opportunity
3.2
ORYN is polling its model network — Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — for this market. The consensus and per-model dissent will appear here.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
The market reflects a low probability (10.25%) that Mexico City's highest temperature on June 27, 2026, will reach 26°C, based on historical climate data and seasonal trends. The resolution depends on real-time meteorological records from Wunderground, with precision to whole degrees Celsius.
A bullish outcome could occur if an unusual heatwave or weather anomaly pushes temperatures to 26°C, potentially driven by climate change trends or localized atmospheric conditions. Historical outliers (e.g., 2023's record heat) suggest such events are possible but rare.
The bear case assumes typical June conditions, where Mexico City's average high is around 24-25°C, making 26°C an unlikely outlier. Persistent cloud cover, rainfall, or cooler-than-normal weather patterns could suppress temperatures below the threshold.
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Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on June 27? is tracked on ORYN with data sourced from polymarket. Current market-implied probability is 8.3% while ORYN AI estimates 12%.
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